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premium picks example: 5/12

(what actually resulted in blue not in premium email)

Today:
No plays on LAD@PHI...Dodgers finally on road, but Chan Ho not consistent enough to back, CWS@CLE...no clue w this matchup, TB@BAL...again, just too difficult to call as both teams and starters somewhat tough to gauge right now,  ATL@NYM...same w this one, Jurrjens has 2.01 ERA in '09 but Pelfrey is 4-0 w a mediocre ERA, SD@CHC...Padres simply can't win a game these days, Peavy too inconsistent and not enough bang for the buck to back him...meanwhile, Cubs too expensive w an inconsistent Harden on mound, FLA@MIL...Parra good of late but no way I'd recommend paying this exorbitant price for him...Marlins' Koronka too unknown to back, DET@MIN...Galarraga started '09 great, not so good of late...bad track mark v Min...Slowey great at Metrodome but '09 performance in general too shaky to back in the -135 range...exercising discipline here, HOU@COL...like w Brewers game, Rockies too expensive w line simply based on question marks about opponent rather than strength of fave, KC@OAK...yes, ladies and gentlemen, another A's game I recommend you avoid.
LAD@PHI: Park outpitched Kershaw in Philly win.  CWS@CLE: Sox win powered by 2 Thome HRs.  TB@BAL: Both teams score 5 in 2nd.  None in innings 4-9.  Bal won 7-5.  ATL@NYM: Mets rally from 3-0 deficit in 8th to win in 10.  Perfect "no play".   SD@CHC: Padres score 2 in 1st, never again.  Cubs won 6-2.  FLA@MIL: Marlins led 3-0 after 2, lose 6-3. DET@MIN: Should've gone Minnesota here as Slowey's Metrodome mastery continues in 6-2 Twins win.  HOU@COL: Rockies destroy Astros 12-1.  Guess it wasn't too expensive.  KC@OAK: Good Oakland shows up in 12-3 win.

Tempted by: BOS@LAA...all pitching stats point to Weaver here and LAA available at a nice price but Masterson way too capable of gem and Sox bats way too capable of showing up. Weaver still hasn't pitched enough to make me feel totally comfortable. Could be one I regret, but saying that, we've been phenomenally prudent in staying away from tempt games lately. All those units we would have won in tempt games earlier in '09 would have been given right back in the past couple weeks of tempters. Let's stay the discipline course.

Discipline won out.  Angels led til 8th when Boston rallied to tie then won by a run on a go-ahead run in the 9th.

Free Pick on twitter:
Take St. Louis Cardinals (-110) over Pittsburgh Pirates

Zach Duke, 2.79 ERA in '09. But, Pirates have lost 12 of 13. Pirates have lost 8 in a row. Pittsburgh hitting .212 over last 8 and averaging 3.0 runs/gm over last 13. Todd Wellemeyer yielded just 2ER in 7IP 5/7 v Pit. Albert Pujols is 11 for 20 (.550) v Pittsburgh in '09, 14 for 28 with 2HR v Duke. Pujols went 3 for 3 w HR off Duke Wed. Nice price for Cards.
Well, Albert Pujols homered, and that’s about all that went as predicted. Zach Duke was marvelous (8IP, 1 ER, 4H, 5SO, 1BB) and Todd Wellemeyer was not (4 1/3IP, 7ER, 9H, 4SO, 3BB, 2HR). To add injury to insult, Ryan Ludwick of St. Louis pulled a hamstring and had to leave the game. In the end, we paid very small price to be this off.
LOSS (Pit 7 STL 1)

Premiums:
Take Toronto (-135) v NY Yankees
Roy Halladay is brilliant, and especially brilliant v the Yankees. Halladay won his last five starts versus the Yankees last season to move to 15-5 with a 2.86 ERA in his career against them. In three home starts last year versus New York, Halladay was 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and two complete games. He's already 6-1 w a 3.29 ERA in '09. Make that 3-0 w a 2.74 ERA in his last 3 starts. AJ Burnett has a 5.26 ERA in '09, largely because of his recent trend downwards. His ERA in his last 3 outings: 7.50.
Did I say ‘brilliant’ enough in the write-up? Here’s just how brilliant Halladay was: a complete game 5-hitter. (9IP, 1ER, 5H, 5SO, 0BB). Wow. AJ Burnett kept up w Halladay for 3 innings before Scott Rolen’s 2RBI double in the 4th gave the Jays all the runs they would need. Rolen had 3 hits and 3RBI in all. But this game was all about the brilliance of Halladay. Did I mention that?
WIN (Tor 5 NYY 1)

Take Texas (-145) v Seattle
Jason Vargas takes mound for Seattle fresh from AAA ball. Scott Feldman has been great lately, w a 2-0 mark and a 3.24 ERA in his last 2 starts. Ichiro Suzuki is 0-for-9 lifetime v Feldman. Michael Young and Josh Hamilton both expected back in lineup for Rangers.
How much do we love the Texas Rangers at beatingthebook? Hit this one on the money. Josh Hamilton hit the GW 2 run HR in the 7th, as part of a 6 run inning. Michael Young went 3-for-3, and Scott Feldman (6 1/3IP, 1ER, 4H), part of what is becoming a surprisingly formidable Rangers pitching staff, was excellent. By the way, Jason Vargas (5IP, 1ER, 5H) , fresh out of AAA, was true to the task for the Mariners. But the Rangers went off on reliever Mark Lowe in the 7th to seal the deal.
WIN (Tex 7 Sea 1)

Take Cincinnati (+180) @ Arizona
You bet your sweet bippy we're going after this one. OK. Danny Haren is outstanding. Make no mistake. The right-hander is fifth in the majors in ERA (1.84), sixth in opponents' batting average (.188) and seventh in strikeouts (51). However, he has a 5.49 ERA in four games -- three starts -- against the Reds. With Micah Owings on the mound facing his old team, Haren will have to face 9 legitimate batters as opposed to the 8 Owings will be facing. That should even things out. Meanwhile, after our successfully backed Reds dog victory in Arizona yesterday, the DBacks have now lost 9 of their last 11 to the Reds. If this were +130, I might not recommend it, but at +180, we'd be awfully foolish not to. Grab it and enjoy the hot Red bats against Haren. This oughtta be fun.
So much fun, in fact. If we’re big on the Rangers at btb, how much do you think I love the Reds right now? Micah Owings was sensational (7IP, 1ER, 4H, 4SO, 2BB) as the Dbacks once again gave no run support to Danny Haren. Haren (7IP. 3ER, 6H, 5SO, 0BB) for his part was darn good, but this Reds lineup got to him in the 4th, as Jerry Hairston, Jr, Brandon Phillips, and Jay Bruce all singled as part of a 2 run frame that made all the difference. Phillips added a solo shot in the 6th. Big dog winner, baby!!!
WIN (Cin 3 Arz 1)

Take San Francisco (-135) v Washington
Don't look now, but the Giants are on fire. After our successfully backed victory yesterday v the Nats, the Giants have won 14 of their last 20. Matt Cain owns Washington, posting a 0.42 ERA in winning all three of his starts against them since 2007. In his last start against Washington on July 24, Cain threw a four-hitter in San Francisco's 1-0 victory at AT&T Park. This season overall, Cain has allowed two runs or less in five of his six starts. You know I respect Jordan Zimmermann of the Nats, but he hasn't been up to snuff lately, posting a 6.35 ERA in his last 3 appearances. As far as Ryan Zimmerman and his 29 game hitting streak, make no mistake, he is raking it. Against Cain lifetime, he's 3-for-13, though. Giants coming off biggest run total of year.
Matt Cain (7IP, 4ER, 9H, 4SO, 1BB) and Jordan Zimmerman (6IP, 3ER, 6H, 8SO, 2BB) both pitched well. The Giants led 5-1 when Nick Johnson hit a 3 run shot off Cain in the 7th. Johnson broke a 5-5 tie the next inning w a 2RBI infield single. The Giants pulled w/in one on a Bengie Molina solo shot in the 8th. Then, the Giants staged a 2 out rally in the 9th trailing 7-6. With 2 out, Emanuel Burriss singled, got to second on a throwing error, and Edgar Reneteria walked. With 2 down and a 2-2 count and the Giants down to their last strike, Pablo Sandoval went yard for the dramatic win. Huge. And it capped a tremendous night for us. BTW, in the most underreported story in sports, Ryan Zimmerman extended his hitting streak to 30 games on a 2-for-5 night. He singled in the very first inning.
WIN (SF 9 Was 7)

MLB Premium Plays Today: 4-0 (+4.80 units)

Updated: 5/12/09

Season MLB Free Plays: 19-16 (+3.35 units)
Season MLB Premium Plays: 56-49 (+4.90 units)
Overall beatingthebook MLB Plays: 75-65 (+8.25 units)  54%

 

Beating The Book was the first-ever honest, daily take on sports gambling. "Antitout" Gill Alexander took an entertaining and in-depth look at sports wagering and provided your sports betting edge, helping listeners turn big profits in the 2005 NCAA Mens College Basketball Tournament and 2005 NBA playoffs, and reap huge paydays in the 2005-2006 NFL season, including a major windfall in Super Bowl XL.  Plus, the 2005-2006 NBA regular season finished in major positive net unit territory.The 2006 MLB, NFL, College Football, and English Premier League seasons did the same.  And the winning continued in 2007.  Every pick was free and stated in advance, so records couldn't be fudged. Now, on Twitter, we cater to both serious and casual gamblers alike and include features such as a "Gambling Tip Of The Week".  Don't miss out on what you need to know to increase your bankroll. Premium picks are available for purchase on the home page.  And click through to easily open accounts at your book of choice.