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premium picks example: 4/29

(what actually resulted in blue not in premium email)

 

Today:

Staying away from: PIT@MIL...so badly wanted to take Pittsburgh at +190 because Snell is awfully good, but Gallardo's last 2 starts have been incredible, and with McLouth still out, thought it irresponsible to pull trigger, SEA@CWS...Bedard has been great this season but btb seems snakebit by ChiSox either way so I'll wait a little longer before capping this club again, SD@COL...Cook too expensive, Correia capable of gem anytime, CHC@ARZ...Davis is great v Chicago but Cubs bats got to Petit who was great v Chicago before yesterday, STL@ATL...Wainwright and Vasquez both solid in '09, proverbial coin flip, WAS@PHI...you know the story, Philly too expensive and Zimmermann's not pitching for the Nats, so forget about them, NYY@DET...did the Yanks break out of their hitting slump w RISP yesterday?..hard to say, as it all happened in one inning..they're a bit too expensive for my tastes today, HOU@CIN...we won on Volquez a couple Sundays ago v Houston because he's so good v the Astros, but he really is mediocre thus far otherwise...not gonna pay -140 to find out what prevails today, OAK@TEX...who would bet this game?...who?...i want to meet them and discuss, TB@MIN...Francisco Liriano appears to be back for Minnesota so there's cause for rejoice in the Twin Cities but I have absolutely no feel for a Kazmir/Blackburn matchup today w 2 highly unpredictable teams in the first month of '09.
PIT@MIL: Ian Snell (7IP, 1ER, 5H) was every bit as good as I thought he would be. But Yovani Gallardo (8IP, 0ER, 2H, 11SO, 1 BB), who had already been “incredible”, throws up that sick line. By the way, he then took it to an even higher level today, not only dealing the gem but also hitting the solo HR that provided the difference. Gallardo is just the fifth pitcher in the last 44 years to hit a home run in a 1-0 game. As tempting as the Pirates were to play at +190, the discipline saved us a unit.  SEA@CWS: Mariners led 3-1, lost 6-3. SD@COL: Cook great in Rockies win.  CHC@ARZ: Davis dominated the Cubs in a 10-0 rout.  STL@ATL: Coin lands on Cards in 2 run win.  WAS@PHI: Nats show up w upset, only 5th win of '09.  NYY@DET: Yanks led by 7, then held on for dear life in a 5 run 9th for Tigers but still won by 2.  HOU@CIN: Should've gone w Volquez again.  Usual dominance of Astros.  His line...8IP, 0ER, 1H, 6SO, 1BB) Wow.  OAK@TEX: Seriously, this game was postponed, perhaps because of the very fact that it was unbettable :)  TB@MIN:Kazmir shelled.  Twins cruise.

Free Pick on twitter:
Take Baltimore (-140) over LA Angels
Shane Loux of LAA reached for 7R, 11H in 4 IP in last outing v Seattle. Koji Uehara of Bal held Texas to 2R and 4H in 6 2-3IP last time out. Uehara has allowed only 4R and 9H in past two starts, spanning 13 2-3 innings. 2.31 ERA at Camden.
Shane Loux (6IP, 1ER, 5H) was just that much better than Koji Uehara (6 1/3IP, 3ER, 7H) in this one. Torii Hunter and Kendry Morales hit solo shots in the 7th, the latter of which proved to be the difference maker.
LOSS (LAA 3 Bal 2)

MLB Free Play Today: 0-1 (-1.40 units)

Premiums Picks:
Take Florida +160 @ NYM
Listen, I know it's Johan Santana and his 0.45 ERA in '09. And I know he's 5-1 lifetime v Florida w a 1.52 ERA, dropping to 1.17 over the last 3. But Josh Johnson is 5-0 career v NYM w a 1.59 ERA himself and is the only guy to beat Santana this season. Florida's bullpen is a mess, to be sure, but I like Johnson going 7 or 8 minimum in this one. At +160, we must take this. (Hanley Ramirez of Florida and Carlos Delgado of NYM both doubtful today.)
One finally went our way. Josh Johson had the definition of a quality start (6IP, 3ER) if not an overly lengthy one, and after giving up 2ER in the 1st inning, Johan Santana was sensational, pitching 6 more innings of scoreless ball after that. But, a Cody Ross 2 RBI single just past the infield w the bases juiced in the 8th off JJ Putz put the Marlins ahead to stay. But it wasn’t w/o typical Marlins bullpen drama, as they escaped jams in the 8th and 9th, the latter of which featuring beleaguered Marlin Matt Lindstrom escaping a bases-loaded jam by getting pinch-hitter Omir Santos on a game-ending popup. In a curious move by Mets manager Jerry Manuel, the inexperienced Santos batted for fellow catcher and right-handed hitter Ramon Castro, who had two hits and an RBI. After all our travails, we’ll take it, thank you.
WIN (Fla 4 NYM 3)

Take Boston -130 @ Cleveland
So the Red Sox 11 game winning streak was snapped on a fielding error by the Sox yesterday (knew we couldn't trust Penny, who gave up 7 runs) but we're right back on them today. Fausto Carmona has been dreadful for Cleveland in '09 (1-3, 7.36 ERA) and has an 8.10 ERA lifetime against the BoSox. Even in a loss yesterday, Boston got 14 hits, so they're raking. Jon Lester, while not always Lesteresque so far in '09 has still had outings where he has been brilliant. He has allowed just 2 runs in his last 2 appearances v Cleveland with 16 strikeouts in those 13 innings. I'll happily grab this at -130.
The simple fact that Florida escaped w that victory above made it feel like our premium hard luck April was about to completely get turned on its head. And that’s exactly what happened. My reasoning in picking Boston in this game was actually pretty off the mark. Jon Lester eventually threw 3 scoreless innings true, but only after he forked over a 5-0 lead to Cleveland w/in 3 innings. Lester’s final line: (6IP, 5ER, 7H, 2 HR) was not as good as Indians starter Fausto Carmona’s (6 2/3 IP, 2ER, 5H) but the Sox got to the Cleveland bullpen for 3 in the 8th w the tying hit off the bat of Jacoby Ellsbury, and in the 10th, Jonathan Van Every, the Red Sox’ secret weapon and a member of the Cleveland organization from 2000-2007, hit a solo shot that Jonathan Papelbon then saved. Oh, how I’d love to tell you that I figured on Jonathan Van Every winning this one for us. But after the Atlanta bullpen meltdown, the night during which 2 2-out bottom-of-the-9th homers turned wins into losses, and all the grand slams hit against us, all in this roller coaster of an April, I will not apologize for this one at all. We had some karma coming our way. And when we have gangbuster totals deeper into the year, let’s remember that Florida escape today.
WIN (Bos 6 Cle 5)

Take KC -145 v Toronto
OK, Brian Tallet has been nice in '09 w a 2.95 ERA, 1.93 in his last 3 appearances. But nice does not begin to describe Zack Greinke. Greinke, a btb favorite for years, and admittedly probably prematurely backed n the past, is realizing every bit of his potential this season. He is 4-0 w a 0.00 ERA. Yup. You read that correctly. A 0.00 ERA. That, my friends, is a beautiful thing. He is, however, 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in five starts against Toronto. That coupled w Tallet's nice start and the fact that Toronto's 133 runs are the most in the majors has this line just low enough for me to recommend. But recommend it I do. As Jim Leyland, manager of the Tigers, says, "When Greinke pitches, the Royals are as good as any team in baseball." Expect a beauty from Greinke tonight.
Well, the 0.00 ERA days are done for Zack Greinke. Now, it’s 0.50. Sports Illustrated’s cover boy and MLB’s first 5 game winner threw 7 innings of 5 hit ball and yielded just 2 earned runs. Add in 8 strikeouts against just 2 bases on balls. Brian Tallet didn’t turn out to be much, after all. Tallet (4IP, 10ER, 11H, 3HR) got steamrolled by an offense that hadn’t been scaring many teams in‘09. Billy Butler had a career high 4 hits for KC. Including 2 HR and 4RBI. I
like winning easy.
WIN (KC 11 Tor 3)

Take SF Giants -140 over LA Dodgers
Timmy Lincecum is back. Lincecum (1-1, 2.96 ERA) had a serious case of bronchitis during spring training, and he underwent a medical examination following a second straight ugly performance to start the season. Doctors found nothing wrong with the right-hander, and he proved that to be true in his next two starts. He has a 2.11 ERA in his last 3 outings and has only given up 1 ER in his last 16 innings. he also owns LAD w a 2-0, 1.59 mark against them. Like in the TOR-KC game in which we're backing the out-of-this-world ace, Lincecum's opponent on the mound for the Dodgers has been nice too. Eric Stults has a 2-0, 3.52 ERA in '09. But, again, nice is nice. Ridiculous is ridiculous. And I'll grab ridiculous when affordable every time.
Again, I like winning easy. Timmy Lincecum (7IP, 3ER, 6H, 8SO, 3BB) is the real deal, as well, and didn‘t give up a run thru the first 7 tonight. And the Giants offense tagged Eric Stults for 5 runs on 7 hits, and chased the Dodger starter before the end of the 3rd. Bengie Molina is getting it done big time in ‘09, and he went off in this one on a 3-for-5 night w a HR, a triple, and 4RBI. That’s right, a triple.
WIN (SF 9 LAD 4)

MLB Premium Plays Today: 4-0 (+4.60 units)

Johnson, Greinke, Lincecum, and Lester. We backed 4 great starters today. Greinke and Lincecum cruised. The play on Johnson was a prudent one because of the amazing value on him even though he was up against Santana. With Lester, it took some time to get to his usual sharp self tonight. On most nights, we wouldn’t have overcome that, but everything went our way today.

Updated: 4/29/09

Season MLB Free Plays: 14-8 (+7.45 units)
Season MLB Premium Plays: 37-36 (-1.30 units)
Overall beatingthebook MLB Plays: 51-44 (+6.15 units)  54%

 

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