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premium picks example: 4/16

(what actually resulted in blue not in premium email)

Today:

Not playing HOU@PIT (Ortiz great lifetime v Pirates but can be so miserable recently...Pittsburgh is a day-in, day-out pot luck guess), CLE@NYY (Yanks way too expensive in home opener w Sabathia), PHI@WAS (rained out yesterday and like I said then, Blanton too expensive even at -135...no way I'm recommending a play on the Nats), and SF@LAD (Zito too shaky but Dodgers too costly).

HOU@PIT: Houston broke a tie in the 6th to win by 3 runs.  CLE@NYY: Cleveland completely spoiled the Yankees opener in their new ballpark, breaking a tie in the 7th and blasted them, 10-2.  Admittedly, would never have had the strength to call that one. PHI@WAS: Blanton predictably gave up 3 in the 1st and the Nats never looked back on the way to their first win.  SF@LAD: Zito got wild in the 6th and the Dodgers blew open a tight game.

 

Free Pick on twitter:

Take Florida (+120) @ Atlanta

While the Braves are excited about Kenshin Kawakami's debut quality start in '09, Anibal Sanchez was even more solid for the Marlins in his first outing (5IP, 0ER, 4H, 3BB, W v NYM). The big differentiator in this one besides Florida's excellent overall start, in general, is the Braves horrific bullpen (and, oh, how we know that). Plus Chipper Jones is out w a thumb injury. Brian McCann who hits Sanchez well (4-for-11) is also out of the starting lineup for rest and will only be seen in pinch-hitting situations. Seriously, how are the Marlins dogs here?

With the Marlins seemingly finding a different hero each game, Cody Ross and Jeremy Hermida were just that in this one.  Ross had the big shot, a 3 run dinger off Kenshin Kawakami that the Braves could never overcome.  Anibal Sanchez (6IP, 2ER, 8H) indeed outpitched Kawakami (6IP, 5ER)

as most of any trouble Sanchez did experience was mitigated by it usually occurring w 2 out.  Later, the Marlins' bullpen gave up just 1 hit and no runs thru 3, outpacing their Atlanta counterparts in the pen, as well.

WIN (FLA 6 ATL 2)

 

Premium Picks:

Take St. Louis (+100) @ ChC

Cardinals bats, as noted before, backing them successfully yesterday, are on fire. Chris Duncan: 9 game hitting streak. Ryan Ludwick: 18 game hitting streak extending back to last season. Albert Pujols: .342, 13RBI, 11R. Team BA: .296

Cubbies could still possibly be without Aramis Ramirez in

lineup again today (though he'd be back yesterday, by the way, part of the thinking in not taking the Rockies). Adam Wainwright while not good career v Cubs or at Wrigley w ERA over 6.00 in both categories, he has been tremendous early this season (1-0, 1.74) and just threw 5 innings of shutout ball against Houston. If this weren't the darling Cubs, this line would be quite different. I believe Sean Marshall gets beat up today in his first start of the year.

This was a game in which both starting pitchers kept their teams in the game. It was a seesaw affair until the bottom of the 6th when Chris Duncan and Brendan Ryan committed two errors on one play for St. Louis, leading to a bases loaded no-out situation for the Cubbies v Wainwright.  But Wainwright, who is now 2-0, 3.31 ERA on the campaign, struck out Geovany Soto, then after an intentional pass, struck out Milton Bradley, before retiring Alfredo Soriano on a flyout.  And the Cardinals offense

highlighted in the pre-game writeup wasn't done.  The momentum completely shifted in the Cardinal half of the 7th when Yadier Molina's 2 out single gave St. Louis the lead for good.  Both Ryan Ludwick and Chris Duncan extended their hitting streaks, w Duncan more than atoning for his fielding errors w a 2 run homer, 2 singles, and 3 RBI.

WIN (STL 7 CHC 4)

Take ChiSox (-110) @ Tampa Bay

John Danks (3-1, 2.96 ERA career v TB) and at Tropicana (3-0, 2.50 ERA). Danks also pitched well against TB in the ALDS last season. Danks coming off 6IP of shutout ball v KC. Jeff Neimann coming off rough outing in Baltimore where he gave up 6ER and 6H in 5 1/3 IP. Evan Longoria (.441) out again for personal reasons, so Danks won't have to deal w the hottest TB bat. Like above game, line is a gift based on team we're fading. In this case, the suddenly public darling Rays.

Jeff Neimann was very good (6IP, 2ER, 9H).  But John Danks?  He was truly special.  Danks continued the mastery of the Rays and his dominance at Tropicana as detailed above, pitching 6 innings of 2 hit ball, giving up just 1 ER.  Eventually, Bobby Jenks overcame a White Sox error in the 9th to get the save.  Jermaine Dye provided a big two run homer in the 2nd off Neimann to give the Sox a lead they never relinquished.

WIN (ChWS 3 TB 2)

Take SD (+120) @ NYM

Yup, got this one wrong last night. But, we're getting Jake Peavy as a dog here and I just don't see how you pass up that opportunity. Peavy had a quality start in his last appearance v SF and is 4-2, 3.32 ERA lifetime v NYM. John Maine has a 5.40 career mark v SD. There'll be no excessive analysis on this one other to repeat, it's Peavy. Baseball betting is all about value and it's staring us in the face here.

Of all the games we played today, this is the one in which we faced the biggest deficit.  Jake Peavy spotted the Mets a 3 run lead on a Carlos Delgado homer in the very 1st inning, but then steadied the ship.  In the end Peavy's numbers (5IP, 3ER, 6H, 5SO, 4BB) were better than NYM starter John Maine's (5IP, 6ER, 7H, 4SO, 3BB), as the Padres 5 run 3rd inning provided most of the damage to Maine.  But the Mets bullpen was great and held the game in check.  San Diego only sealed the deal w the former Met reliever Heath Bell's perfect ninth.  Chase Headley had 4 hits for the Padres.  Funny how the game w the least analysis provided us w the most problem...hmmmmm.  But the simple Peavy value play worked out, after all.

WIN (SD 6 NYM 5)

Take Toronto (-140) @ Minnesota

Speaking of value, Roy Halladay at -140 here is just that. Halladay is 7-0, 2.92 ERA lifetime v the Twins. he loves pitching against these guys. He's also coming off an appearance at Cleveland in which he was brilliant, yielding just 1 ER in 7IP. As we well know since we've lost backing him, on the other hand, Francisco Liriano has not been good. He's 0-2 w a 6.94 ERA this season. And the Blue Jays have won 11 out of their last 12 v Minnesota. The only reason this line is muted is because somehow, Liriano's still riding on his rep. Grab

Halladay and the Jays here.

And Roy Halladay is now 8-0 lifetime v the Twins and his ERA against Minnesota will be lower now, as well.  Halladay scattered 8 hits over 7 IP, giving up just 1 ER.  He also had 8 strikeouts and issued not a single bases on balls.  He's now 3-0 w a 3.00 ERA in 2009.  However, Francisco Liriano had his best outing of the season, as well, giving up only 7 hits over 6 IP w just 1 ER, and left the game w the Twins just down a single run.  But the Jays mastery of the Twins went into overdrive at that point, blowing away the Minnesota bullpen (read: Matt Guerrier and R.A. Dickey) w a 7 run 7th, capped by a grand slam by Kevin Millar.  Marco Scutaro had a huge 2 run shot of his own earlier in the inning.  But this game was all about Halladay's brilliance, first and foremost.  The Jays have now won 12 out of their last 13 v the Twins.

WIN (TOR 9 MIN 2)

Take LAA (-140) @ Seattle

That's right, 6 picks today, including the free one and all are on the road. we don't let such things dissuade us when we've been at it this long and the numbers speak to us. The Mariners have been red-hot w 6 wins in a row, but Joe Saunders in the antidote today. Saunders has a 2.63 ERA this season and is 4-1 lifetime v Seattle w an ERA of just of 3.27 in his last 3 appearances against them.  Interestingly, he is a sensational lifetime starter this month of the calendar year (8-1 with a 2.15 ERA in 11 career April starts). Ichiro is back in the

lineup but is only 4-for-22 career v Saunders. This is Seattle starter Chris Jakubauskas' first major league start.

Saunders was indeed nothing short of brilliant. He gave up just 3 hits in 7 IP w 1 ER.  His ERA on the season is now down to 2.18.  Of note, Jakubauskas had a very good start, as well (5 1/3 IP, 5H, 2ER, 3SO, 0BB) but the Angels got to the Mariners bullpen and specifically, Roy Corcoran, in a 5 run 6th that did all the damage.  All of the runs that inning began w a 2 out RBI single on an 0-2 count from Mike Napoli, and the flood ensued.

WIN (LAA 5 SEA 1)

 

MLB Free Plays Today: 1-0 (+1.20 units)

MLB Premium Plays Today: 5-0 (+5.20 units)

Updated: 4/16/09

Season MLB Free Plays: 7-2 (+6.00 units)
Season MLB Premium Plays: 22-17 (+3.80 units)
Overall beatingthebook MLB Plays: 29-19 (+9.80 units)  60%

 

Beating The Book was the first-ever honest, daily take on sports gambling. "Antitout" Gill Alexander took an entertaining and in-depth look at sports wagering and provided your sports betting edge, helping listeners turn big profits in the 2005 NCAA Mens College Basketball Tournament and 2005 NBA playoffs, and reap huge paydays in the 2005-2006 NFL season, including a major windfall in Super Bowl XL.  Plus, the 2005-2006 NBA regular season finished in major positive net unit territory.The 2006 MLB, NFL, College Football, and English Premier League seasons did the same.  And the winning continued in 2007.  Every pick was free and stated in advance, so records couldn't be fudged. Now, on Twitter, we cater to both serious and casual gamblers alike and include features such as a "Gambling Tip Of The Week".  Don't miss out on what you need to know to increase your bankroll. Premium picks are available for purchase on the home page.  And click through to easily open accounts at your book of choice.