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premium picks example: 4/26

(what actually resulted in blue not in premium email)

 

Today:

Stay away from ATL@CIN (would love to go Kawakami here but Owings is too good v Braves w lifetime 2-0, 3.46 ERA mark) , MIN@CLE (Perkins and Laffey both having solid seasons..tempted by Laffey since he’s great at Progressive (2.72 lifetime ERA), but -130 too high), TEX@BAL (not touching this series anymore), MIL@HOU (two poorly performing starters in Parra and Ortiz), TOR@CWS(Halladay too expensive), DET@KC (Tigers too pricey), CHC@STL (total tossup), SEA@LAA (too tough a call..maybe if Washburn got more of a return), PIT@SD (Peavy too costly), TB@OAK (two poorly performing starters), SF@ARZ (not enough return on Cain)
ATL@ARZ: Smart to stay away.  Kawakami was eventually shelled and Owings was more brilliant than ever v Atl. in a Reds blowout.  MIN@CLE: Laffey did get the best of Perkins in a 2 run win.  TEX@BAL: Texas led 5-0.  The O's came back to win 8-5.  Typical.  MIL@HOU: Actually two nice starting pitching performances in a 1 run game.  TOR@CWS: Halladay was matched evenly by Contreras.  Jays one late by 1 run.  Exactly why you don't buy high. DET@KC: Tigers by 1 run.  CHC@STL: Cubbies day as they cruise to victory.  Wellemeyer beat up early.  Harden solid.  SEA@LAA: Angles win in blowout.  Typical potluck result when these two clubs play this season.  PIT@SD: Ohlendorf outpitches Peavy.  Again, exactly why you don't pay the high price tag based on rep.  TB@OAK: Well, Sonnastine performed poorly for TB.  Eveland excellent for Oakland.  SF@ARZ: Giants blow 3 run lead in 9th, lose in 12th.
Tempted by: NYY@BOS (Pettite lights out in '09, 2-0, 2.53 ERA...Masterson dominant at Fenway...6-0, 2.91 ERA..what gives?..Pettite always good there too..Yanks pen situation tempts me to go Sox here but I just can't pull trigger based on above)

Masterson more masterful than Pettite.  Perhaps we should've pulled trigger in Sox 3 run win.

Free pick on twitter:
Take Philadelphia (-105) @ Florida

Jamie Moyer, despite a 6.35 ERA in ’09, is 6-0 w a 1.59 ERA career @ Dolphin Stadium and is 11-1 career w a 2.95 ERA v Florida…Florida‘s bullpen a disaster

Nailed it.  Moyer was great (6IP, 1ER, 6H, 6SO, 1BB) and the Marlins bullpen was disastrous once again (5 1/3IP, 8ER, 8H).  Things got so bad for Florida that CF Cody Ross pitched the 9th inning.  I’m not making that up.  Oh, by the way, Ross pitched a scoreless inning.  Not kidding.  Way better performance than actual Florida relievers Hayden Penn and Kiko Calero had.  And he was 3-for-4 at the plate.  Shane Victorino of the Phils had 4 RBI in this game and 8 RBI for the series.

WIN (Phi 13 Fla 2)

MLB Free Play Today: 1-0 (+1.00 unit)

Premium Picks:
Take Washington +155 @ NYMets
Yesterday I mentioned that I couldn't recommend the Nats since they've only won 3 games this season, and we were right to stay away from them, to be sure, as they lost again. But today is different. A nice +155 return on Washington's best hurler, young Jordan Zimmermann, who looked very solid in his opening outing v Atlanta. Contrast that w Oliver Perez, the Mets' starting pitcher today who has a 7.80 ERA in '09 and actually is even worse against Washington in his last 3
appearances against them, posting an 8.62 ERA. I think this line is at least a quarter off but is the way it is because you've got a New York team playing the one w baseball's worst record. I believe the Nats win today, and we'll reap the rewards.

And we did.  Dead on again.  Oliver Perez got tagged for 7 earned runs and 9 hits in 4 1/3 innings, and Jordan Zimmermann was fabulous giving up just 1 earned run and 6 hits in 5 1/3 innings.  By the way, some horrific umpiring in the first inning ended up being the only thing keeping this game from being a shutout and actually threatened to derail us early as the Mets were twice allowed to extend the bottom half of the inning.  3rd base umpire Gerry Davis ruled that neither Jose Reyes or Carlos Delgado went around on apparent third strike swings and Zimmermann not only eventually gave up his only run of the contest, but ended up being heavily taxed in pitch count, as a result.  Still, the Nats overcame it in style, routing the Mets, as Jesus Flores homered and drove in three runs against his former club.

WIN (Was 8 NYM 1)

Take Colorado (-105) v LA Dodgers
We successfully backed Marquis at Coors earlier this season. He is absolutely freakish there w a 4-0, 2.52 career mark. He has also always pitched the Dodgers well (3-1, 1.99 ERA career). Expect Marquis to keep that going today as word is
that both Manny Ramirez and Rafael Furcal may sit this one out (rest) for LA.

I’m not gonna lie.  I was quite happy w the handicapping and inside info today.  Manny Ramirez, Rafael Furcal, and Casey Blake were given routine days off by Joe Torre.  Jason Marquis was his usual sensational self at Coors (7 1/3 IP, 3ER, 6H).  He used his sinker effectively to get 10 ground ball outs and remain unbeaten in five decisions at the ballpark.  "I don't let any of my surroundings or what stadium I'm in bother me," Marquis said of his success at Coors. The Rockies built a 9-0 lead off Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw before the end of the 5th and never looked back.  Ryan Spilborghs did most of the damage, homering and driving in three runs.

WIN (Col 10 LAD 4)

MLB Premium Plays Today: 2-0 (+2.55 units)

So, we backed two starters in Moyer and Marquis who not only owned the teams they were playing lifetime, but also dominated in Dolphins Stadium and Coors Field, respectively.  And we also backed a young solid pitcher on a team that had only won 3 games going in against a New York team pitcher who not only was struggling in ‘09 but does so in his career against this opponent.  I just love when this type of information that I uncover is immediately corroborated and goes according to form in that day’s game.  If it only went that way every day.  But, the lesson to me is, if you do the work and research, your odds for success are maximized.  That, coupled w shrewd money management, of course.  Anyway, today, it all went our way and couldn’t have been more fun, especially after the stretch of hard luck we’ve been experiencing.   I particularly loved that our victories ranged from 6 to 11 runs.  Just beautiful.

Updated: 4/26/09

Season MLB Free Plays: 12-7 (+6.75 units)
Season MLB Premium Plays: 33-31 (-0.45 units)
Overall beatingthebook MLB Plays: 45-38 (+6.30 units)  54%

Beating The Book was the first-ever honest, daily take on sports gambling. "Antitout" Gill Alexander took an entertaining and in-depth look at sports wagering and provided your sports betting edge, helping listeners turn big profits in the 2005 NCAA Mens College Basketball Tournament and 2005 NBA playoffs, and reap huge paydays in the 2005-2006 NFL season, including a major windfall in Super Bowl XL.  Plus, the 2005-2006 NBA regular season finished in major positive net unit territory.The 2006 MLB, NFL, College Football, and English Premier League seasons did the same.  And the winning continued in 2007.  Every pick was free and stated in advance, so records couldn't be fudged. Now, on Twitter, we cater to both serious and casual gamblers alike and include features such as a "Gambling Tip Of The Week".  Don't miss out on what you need to know to increase your bankroll. Premium picks are available for purchase on the home page.  And click through to easily open accounts at your book of choice.